The changes to social security benefits in Wales are some of the most radical changes to affect the well-being of the people of Wales in a generation.  These changes, many of them virtually unacknowledged by the wider community, are likely to transform our communities and the prospects of thousands of people in ways not seen since the miners’ strike and pit closures of the 1980s.

A report by Cuts Watch Cymru, launched today, outlines how the changes will affect more than a million people in Wales. Whether they are pensioners or children, working or unemployed, disabled or lone parents, almost everyone who receives some sort of Government benefit will be affected in some way. Some of the changes are relatively small but are no less important, because they affect a large number of people when times are tough.  1.2 million people over retirement age have this winter seen their Winter Fuel Allowance cut by up to £100 (for over 80 year olds) and 372,000 families receiving Child Benefit are affected by benefits rates being frozen for 3 years.331,000 families getting Tax Credits will be affected by changes in the rules about working hours and child-care.

Add to this the changes that will affect particularly vulnerable groups of people, such as disabled people, people who rely on state help to keep a roof over their heads, lone parents: 250,000 people will be affected by changes to Housing Benefit, 244,000 people will be affected by changes to Disability Living Allowance, 180,000 people will be affected by changes to Incapacity Benefit / Employment and Support Allowance, 140,000 people will be affected by changes to arrangements for Crisis Loans, 75,000 people will be affected by tough requirements for Job Seeker’s Allowance and 30,000 lone parents will be moved from Income Support when their child reaches 5 years old.

These numbers cannot be added together because many people receive more than one benefit.  Nevertheless these are big, big numbers - it is like the entire population of Swansea having their housing costs changed, or the entire population of Wrexham’s emergency help being reviewed and the population of Pontypridd being required to find a job because their child is over 5.

These changes are happening at a time when conditions for households are extremely tough.  People whose benefits are reduced, whether as a direct cut or as because rates have been frozen, face rising costs. Inflation (RPI) stands at 3.9% for the year to January 2012 – but some items such as gas and electricity have had even higher rates of inflation.

People looking for work face serious problems – there are already 134,000 people in Wales looking for work. In 2011 there were half the number of vacancies notified to the job centre that there were in 2008 – less than 10,000.

For people in work – who are an important group – wages are static with weekly and hourly median pay decreasing in the last year – not by much, but still an unprecedented decrease.

Into this very difficult climate will come thousands of people moved from benefit because they are deemed to be “fit for work”. They may not have worked for years, they may be balancing working with child-care responsibilities, who may require employers to make adjustments because of an impairment.

And if the story so far is not bad enough, some people will be affected many times over. Not only will a lone parent, for example, be moved from IS to JSA when her child is 5, her Housing Benefit may be reduced if she has a “spare bedroom”, her Child Benefit has been frozen and if she finds a job that fits in with school hours and is flexible if her child is sick, then the child-care element of her tax credits will be reduced.

It is impossible to say how many people in Wales will be affected by multiple changes or what the impacts will be – these are some of the issues we want to investigate further. Suffice to say that we have grave concerns about people’s material well-being, social changes such as family breakdown and people’s emotional well-being.

The changes to social security are almost a fait accompli.  Many of the changes have already been introduced, others are imminent, and some are awaiting the Welfare Reform Bill – now very nearly an Act.  The name of the game now is how the Welsh Government, local authorities and other public bodies, and the third sector, can act together to cushion the terrible blow to people and communities.

It won’t be easy but here are some starting points:

•  Leadership from the Welsh Government – including changes being high on the Welsh Government agenda and engaging with stakeholders.
• The challenge of welfare reform needs to be a key theme in the Welsh Government’s proposed Tackling Poverty Action Plan.
• Welsh Government and local authorities need to urgently establish the fiscal burden generated by the impact of UK Government changes.
• A National Assembly committee should conduct an inquiry into the changes.
• In the UK Parliament, the Welsh Affairs Committee should be monitoring the impact of the welfare reforms on people in Wales.

The changes to the social security system are profoundly reshaping society in Wales. Every one of us, even those who have never claimed a benefit, is losing the fundamental assurance of a state-provided safety net. We can no longer have any assurance that if we are disabled or long-term sick, are made redundant, are abandoned by our partner, that there will be help from the state when we need it.

We will live in a society where pensioners are forced from their homes because they have a spare bedroom, where people with terminal cancer are forced to search for work, and where disabled people will be forced to rely on their partners or children to cover extra costs.

Cuts Watch Cymru is very clear that we are not opposed to the changes to social security benefits for the sake of it. There was a great deal wrong with the old system and we are in no way arguing that life on benefits is a good thing for either the individual or the state. BUT we are concerned that the changes being implemented or in prospect are deeply unjust, and that they are being introduced when social and economic conditions are already extremely harsh. This is why the Welsh Government and other public bodies in Wales must act.