Yesterday’s budget contains little comfort for the 115,000 or so people in Wales who are unemployed.  The Office for Budget Responsibility’s own forecast sees unemployment rising over the next few quarters to a UK rate of 8.3% in the second quarter of this year, before it gradually starts to decline.  But even by 2014, says the OBR, it will still stand at around 2 million.  The OBR doesn’t disaggregate its figures so there is no forecast for Wales. But if Wales followed the UK pattern, unemployment here will rise to around 8.6% by the early summer, and even by 2015 could still be over 100,000.

The return of persistently high unemployment is extremely worrying, for it is sustained worklessness, which is also highly concentrated in particular towns and communities in Wales, which has the most insidious effects.  Whether it is health, debt, prospects of re-employment or children’s wellbeing, the longer someone is unemployed, the worse the impact. Once again, the spectre of a generation without work has emerged.

The challenge of reducing unemployment and creating a thriving economy must surely be the number one priority in every party’s manifesto.  It remains to be seen just what they have to offer.